Structural Racism, Mass Incarceration, and Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Severe Maternal Morbidity.

Importance: Racial and ethnic inequities in the criminal-legal system are an important manifestation of structural racism. However, how these inequities may influence the risk of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) and its persistent racial and ethnic disparities remains underinvestigated. Objective: To examine the association between county-level inequity in jail incarceration rates comparing Black and White individuals and SMM risk in California. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cross-sectional study used state-wide data from California on all live hospital births at 20 weeks of gestation or later from January 1, 1997, to December 31, 2018. Data were obtained from hospital discharge and vital statistics records, which were linked with publicly available county-level data. Data analysis was performed from January 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: Jail incarceration inequity was determined from the ratio of jail incarceration rates of Black individuals to those of White individuals and was categorized as tertile 1 (low), tertile 2 (moderate), tertile 3 (high), with mean cutoffs across all years of 0 to 2.99, 3.00 to 5.22, and greater than 5.22, respectively. Main Outcome and Measures: This study used race- and ethnicity-stratified mixed-effects logistic regression models with birthing people nested within counties and adjusted for individual- and county-level characteristics to estimate the odds of non-blood transfusion SMM (NT SMM) and SMM including blood transfusion-only cases (SMM; as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention SMM index) associated with tertiles of incarceration inequity. Results: This study included 10 200 692 births (0.4% American Indian or Alaska Native, 13.4% Asian or Pacific Islander, 5.8% Black, 50.8% Hispanic or Latinx, 29.6% White, and 0.1% multiracial or other [individuals who self-identified with ≥2 racial groups and those who self-identified as "other" race or ethnicity]). In fully adjusted models, residing in counties with high jail incarceration inequity (tertile 3) was associated with higher odds of SMM for Black (odds ratio [OR], 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01-1.29 for NT SMM; OR, 1.20, 95% CI, 1.01-1.42 for SMM), Hispanic or Latinx (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.14-1.34 for NT SMM; OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.14-1.27 for SMM), and White (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.93-1.12 for NT SMM; OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.17 for SMM) birthing people, compared with residing in counties with low inequity (tertile 1). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study highlight the adverse maternal health consequences of structural racism manifesting via the criminal-legal system and underscore the need for community-based alternatives to inequitable punitive practices.

Skeletal muscle and visceral adipose radiodensities are pre-surgical, non-invasive markers of aggressive kidney cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Most studies on body composition in kidney cancer have been conducted among patients with metastatic disease. Given that aggressive tumours can adversely impact body composition and even non-metastatic tumours can be aggressive, we evaluated associations between pre-surgical body composition features and tumour pathological features in patients with non-metastatic clear cell renal cell cancer (ccRCC). METHODS: The Resolve Cohort consists of 1239 patients with non-metastatic ccRCC who underwent nephrectomy at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center between 2000 and 2020. The cross-sectional areas and radiodensities of skeletal muscle, visceral adipose, and subcutaneous adipose tissues were determined from pre-surgical computed tomography (CT) scans at the third lumbar vertebrae using Automatica software. Pearson's correlation coefficients describe inter-relationships among BMI and body composition variables, while odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) estimate associations between continuous body composition features (per 1-standard deviation) and advanced stage (Stage III vs. Stages I-II) and high Fuhrman grade (Grades 3-4 vs. 1-2) from multivariable logistic regression models that considered the potential impact of biological sex, contrast enhanced CTs, and early age at onset of ccRCC. RESULTS: The cohort was predominantly male (69%), white (89%), and had a median age of 58. The proportion of patients presenting with advanced stage and high-grade disease were 31% and 51%, respectively. In models that adjusted for demographics and all body composition variables simultaneously, decreasing skeletal muscle radiodensity (i.e., more fat infiltration) but increasing visceral adipose tissue radiodensity (i.e., more lipid depletion) were associated with advanced tumour features. Per 8.4 HU decrease in skeletal muscle radiodensity, the odds of presenting with advanced stage was 1.61 (95% CI: 1.34-1.93). Per 7.22 HU increase in visceral adipose tissue radiodensity, the odds of presenting with advanced stage was 1.45 (95% CI: 1.22-1.74). Skeletal muscle index (i.e., sarcopenia) was not associated with either tumour feature. Similar associations were observed for Fuhrman grade, a more direct marker of tumour aggressiveness. Associations did not differ by sex, contrast use, or age at onset of ccRCC. CONCLUSIONS: Lipid infiltrated skeletal muscle, but lipid depleted visceral adipose tissue were independently associated with advanced tumour features in non-metastatic ccRCC. Findings highlight the importance of evaluating the full range of body composition features simultaneously in multivariable models. Interpreting pre-surgical CTs for body composition for patients may be a novel and non-invasive way to identify patients with aggressive renal tumours, which is clinically relevant as renal biopsies are not routinely performed.

The association between the Mediterranean Diet Score and death from cancer of the head and neck.

PURPOSE: The association between diet quality, captured by the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), and mortality was studied among 1184 individuals diagnosed with head and neck cancer (HNC) who reflected on the year preceding diagnosis about their usual diet using National Cancer Institute's Diet History Questionnaire (DHQ). METHODS: Intakes of nine dietary components were scored and summed to construct the MDS (sample: median = 4; range (0-9); lower MDS reflected poorer diet quality; 5-year survival probability = 0.62). Cox regression estimated 5-year hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95CI) for all-cause mortality and for HNC-specific death for contrasts of MDS quintiles. Effect measure modification (EMM) by tumor features [human papillomavirus (HPV) positivity; anatomic site] and sociodemographic behavioral factors [race, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption] was explored. RESULTS: The 5-year [HR (95CI); P-trend] for all-cause mortality and HNC-specific mortality for highest versus lowest MDS quintile contrasts were [0.51 (0.33, 0.80); 0.014] and [0.43 (0.22, 0.85); 0.004], respectively. A unit increase in MDS adherence resulted in a 15% reduction of the 5-year HR for HNC-specific death for tumors located at the oral cavity [HR (95CI): 0.85 (0.75, 0.96)]. Poor diet quality (MDS ≤ 4) interacted with lower BMI (kg/m2 < 25) and separately with ever-using alcohol to produce 5-year HRs for all-cause and HNC-specific mortality that were statistically significantly larger than the sum of the individual HRs representing each combination (Poor diet quality + lower BMI; Poor diet quality + ever-using alcohol). CONCLUSION: Greater adherence to a Mediterranean diet pattern prior to HNC diagnosis may reduce post-diagnosis mortality.

Body composition and cancer survival: a narrative review.

Interest in understanding the relationship between body composition and cancer survival has remained strong for decades, with a number of recent systematic reviews on the topic. However, the current state of evidence is based on heterogeneous exposure definitions based on anthropometry, yielding inconsistent findings with regard to this association. Recently the field has taken an exciting direction with the application of radiological assessments to measure specific aspects of body composition, yet reconciliation of findings from these modern assessment tools with those from the historic use of anthropometric data proves challenging. In this paper, I briefly review the biological basis for a link between body composition and cancer survival and summarize the epidemiological evidence with consideration to specific exposure measures. As enthusiasm is building around novel assessments, I conclude with a discussion of issues that researchers should be aware of when interpreting results from these new modalities.

Mixture of air pollution, brominated flame retardants, polychlorinated biphenyls, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, and organochlorine pesticides in relation to vitamin D concentrations in pregnancy.

Over two-thirds of pregnant women in the U.S. have insufficient 25(OH)D (Vitamin D) concentrations, which can adversely impact fetal health. Several pollutants have been associated with 25(OH)D, but have not been considered in the context of chemical co-exposures. We aimed to determine associations between a broad mixture of prenatal environmental chemical exposures and 25(OH)D concentrations in mid-pregnancy. Stored mid-pregnancy serum samples were assayed from 421 women delivering live births in Southern California in 2000-2003. 25(OH)D, six BFRs, eleven polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), six per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, and two organochlorine pesticides were detected in ≥60% of specimens. Gestational exposures to airborne particulate matter ≤ 10 µm (PM10) and ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone concentrations were derived from monitoring station data. Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (BHM) and Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) analyses estimated overall mixture and individual chemical associations accounting for co-exposures and covariates with mean 25(OH)D levels, and BHM was used to estimate associations with insufficient (<75 nMol/L) 25(OH)D levels. Non-mixture associations for each chemical were estimated with linear and logistic models. PM10 [BHM estimate: -0.133 nmol/l 95% Credible Interval (-0.240, -0.026)] was associated with lower 25(OH)D in BHM and BKMR. Higher quantiles of combined exposures were associated with lower 25(OH)D, though with wide credible intervals. In non-mixture models, PM10, PM2.5, NO, and NO2 were associated with lower concentrations, while O3 and PBDE153 were associated with higher 25(OH)D and/or lower insufficiency. While some chemicals were associated with increased and others with decreased 25(OH)D concentrations, the overall mixture was associated with lower concentrations. Mixture analyses differed from non-mixture regressions, highlighting the importance of mixtures approaches for estimating real-world associations.

Racial differences in associations between adverse childhood experiences and physical, mental, and behavioral health.

Purpose: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with poor adulthood health. Multiracial people have elevated mean ACEs scores and risk of several outcomes. We aimed to determine whether this group should be targeted for prevention efforts. Methods: We analyzed three waves (1994-2009) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (n = 12,372) in 2023, estimating associations between four or more ACEs and physical (metabolic syndrome, hypertension, asthma), mental (anxiety, depression), and behavioral (suicidal ideation, drug use) outcomes. We estimated adjusted risk ratios for each outcome in modified Poisson models interacting race and ACEs. We used the interaction contrast to estimate race-specific excess cases per 1000 relative to Multiracial participants. Results: Excess case estimates of asthma were smaller for White (-123 cases, 95% CI: -251, -4), Black (-141, 95% CI: -285, -6), and Asian (-169, 95% CI: -334, -7) participants compared to Multiracial participants. Black (-100, 95% CI: -189, -10), Asian (-163, 95% CI: -247, -79) and Indigenous (-144, 95% CI: -252, -42) participants had fewer excess cases of and weaker relative scale association with anxiety compared to Multiracial participants. Conclusions: Adjusted associations with asthma and anxiety appear stronger for Multiracial people. Existing ACEs prevention strategies should be tailored to support Multiracial youth and families.

Hypothetical Interventions on Diet Quality and Lifestyle Factors to Improve Breast Cancer Survival: The Pathways Study.

BACKGROUND: The number of breast cancer survivors is increasing, yet evidence to inform dietary and lifestyle guidelines is limited. METHODS: This analysis included 3,658 participants from the Pathways Study, a prospective cohort of women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. A healthy plant-based dietary index score (hPDI), an American Cancer Society (ACS) nutrition guidelines score, a 2015 Healthy Eating Index score (HEI), hours per week of moderate to vigorous physical activity (PA), and lifetime cumulative pack-years of cigarette smoking (SM) were each measured at diagnosis, 6, 24, and 72 months. Using g-computation, 5- and 10-year risk ratios (RR), risk differences, and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all-cause mortality under hypothetical interventions on diet quality, PA, and SM, compared with the natural course (no intervention) were calculated. RESULTS: Hypothetical moderate to extreme interventions on hPDI, ACS, and HEI, each in combination with PA and SM, showed 11% to 56%, 9% to 38%, and 9% to 49% decreases in 5-year risks of all-cause mortality compared with no intervention, respectively [(hPDI: RRmoderate = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.82-0.94; RRextreme = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.26-0.67), (ACS: RRmoderate = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.85-0.96; RRextreme = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.43-0.82), (HEI: RRmoderate = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84-0.95; RRextreme = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.33-0.72)]. While 10-year relative risks were slightly attenuated, absolute risk reductions were more pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to improve diet quality, increase PA, or reduce SM at the time of diagnosis may improve survival among breast cancer survivors. IMPACT: We estimate that over 10% of deaths could be delayed by even moderate adoption of these behaviors.

Racial Differences in Associations Between Adverse Childhood Experiences and Physical, Mental, and Behavioral Health.

Introduction: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with poor adulthood health, with individuals experiencing multiple ACEs at greatest risk. Multiracial people have high mean ACEs scores and elevated risk of several outcomes, but are infrequently the focus of health equity research. This study aimed to determine whether this group should be targeted for prevention efforts. Methods: We analyzed Waves 1 (1994-95), 3 (2001-02), and 4 (2008-09) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (n = 12,372) in 2023, estimating associations between four or more ACEs and physical (metabolic syndrome, hypertension, asthma), mental (anxiety, depression), and behavioral (suicidal ideation, drug use) outcomes. We estimated risk ratios for each outcome in modified Poisson models with a race × ACEs interaction, adjusted for hypothesized confounders of the ACE-outcome relationships. We used the interaction contrast to estimate excess cases per 1,000 individuals for each group relative to Multiracial participants. Results: Excess case estimates of asthma were significantly smaller for White (-123 cases, 95% CI: -251, -4), Black (-141, 95% CI: -285, -6), and Asian (-169, 95% CI: -334, -7) participants compared to Multiracial participants. Black (-100, 95% CI: -189, -10), Asian (-163, 95% CI: -247, -79) and Indigenous (-144, 95% CI: -252, -42) participants had significantly fewer excess cases of and weaker (p < 0.001) relative scale association with anxiety compared to Multiracial participants. Conclusions: Adjusted associations between ACEs and asthma or anxiety appear stronger for Multiracial people than other groups. ACEs are universally harmful but may contribute disproportionately to morbidity in this population.

A hypothetical intervention to reduce inequities in anxiety for Multiracial people: simulating an intervention on childhood adversity.

Multiracial people report higher mean Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) scores and prevalence of anxiety than other racial groups. Studies using statistical interactions to estimate racial differences in ACEs-anxiety associations do not show stronger associations for Multiracial people. Using data from Waves 1 (1995-97) through 4 (2008-09) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), we simulated a stochastic intervention over 1,000 resampled datasets to estimate the race-specific cases averted per 1,000 of anxiety if all racial groups had the same exposure distribution of ACEs as Whites. Simulated cases averted were greatest for the Multiracial group, (median = -4.17 cases per 1,000, 95% CI: -7.42, -1.86). The model also predicted smaller risk reductions for Black participants (-0.76, 95% CI: -1.53, -0.19). CIs around estimates for other racial groups included the null. An intervention to reduce racial disparities in exposure to ACEs could help reduce the inequitable burden of anxiety on the Multiracial population. Stochastic methods support consequentialist approaches to racial health equity, and can encourage greater dialogue between public health researchers, policymakers, and practitioners.

Adolescent BMI trajectory and associations with adult metabolic syndrome and offspring obesity.

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the association of adolescent BMI trajectory with adult metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) and with intergenerational obesity. METHODS: This study used data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Growth and Health Study (1987-1997). Data from the 20-year follow-up (2016-2019) study were included from the original participants (N = 624) and their children (N = 645). Adolescent BMI trajectories were identified using latent trajectory modeling. Mediation analysis using logistic regression models was performed to estimate confounder-adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI between adolescent BMI trajectory and adult MetSyn. Using similar methods, the association between BMI trajectory and offspring obesity was examined. RESULTS: Latent trajectory modeling identified four patterns: "weight loss then gain" (N = 62); "persistently normal" (N = 374); "persistently high BMI" (N = 127); and "weight gain then loss" (N = 61). Women who had a persistently high BMI trajectory had twice the odds of having children who met the definition for obesity compared with the persistently normal group, adjusting for adult BMI (OR: 2.76; 95% CI: 1.39-5.46). None of the trajectory groups was associated with adult MetSyn compared with the persistently normal group. CONCLUSIONS: Intermittent adolescent obesity may not confer MetSyn risk during adulthood. However, maternal adolescent BMI trajectories that are persistently high may increase the odds of intergenerational obesity among offspring.

Associations of Post-Diagnosis Lifestyle with Prognosis in Women with Invasive Breast Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Lifestyle habits can impact breast cancer development, but its impact on breast cancer prognosis remains unclear. We investigated associations of post-diagnosis lifestyle with mortality and recurrence in 1,964 women with invasive breast cancer enrolled in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Pathways Study shortly after diagnosis with lifestyle information at baseline (2005-2013) and the 2-year follow-up. METHODS: We calculated a post-diagnosis lifestyle score (range, 0-18) based on 9 diet, physical activity, and body weight recommendations from the American Cancer Society/American Society of Clinical Oncology (ACS/ASCO) using follow-up data (body weight also included baseline data); higher scores indicate greater guideline concordance. Similarly, we calculated a pre-diagnosis lifestyle score using baseline data to investigate pre- to post-diagnosis changes. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazard models, with follow-up through December 2018 (observing 290 deaths and 176 recurrences). RESULTS: The 2-year post-diagnosis lifestyle score was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (ACM; HR per 2-point increase = 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.98), and breast cancer-related mortality (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.95), but not recurrence. Relative to women who maintained low concordance with recommendations at both time points, women who maintained high concordance had a lower risk of ACM (HR, 0.61, 95% CI, 0.37-1.03). Improved concordance with some specific recommendations (particularly PA) may be associated with a lower hazard of ACM (HRPA, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.35-0.78). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that women with breast cancer may benefit from a post-diagnosis lifestyle aligned with ACS/ASCO guidelines. IMPACT: This information may potentially guide lifestyle recommendations for breast cancer survivors to reduce mortality risk.

Does educational attainment modify the causal relationship between adiposity and cardiovascular disease? A Mendelian randomization study.

A greater risk of cardiovascular disease is associated with low educational attainment and high adiposity. Despite the correlation between low educational attainment and high adiposity, whether educational attainment modifies the risk of CVD caused by high adiposity remains poorly understood. We investigated the effect of adiposity (body mass index [BMI] and waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI [WHRadjBMI]) on incident CVD among individuals with varying education levels, using associational and one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) survival analyses. Data were collected from 2006 to 2021, and sample sizes were 254,281 (27,511 CVD cases) for BMI and 253,968 (27,458 CVD cases) for WHRadjBMI. In the associational model, a standard deviation (SD) higher BMI was associated with 19.81 (95% CI: 18.55-21.06) additional cases of incident CVD per 10,000 person-years for individuals with a secondary education, versus 32.96 (95% CI: 28.75-37.17) for those without. When university degree served as the education variable, education group differences attenuated, with 18.26 (95% CI: 16.37-20.15) cases from a one SD higher BMI for those with a university degree versus 23.18 [95% CI: 21.56-24.72] for those without. For the MR model, an SD higher BMI resulted in 11.75 (95% CI: -0.84-24.38) and 29.79 (95% CI: 17.20-42.44) additional cases of incident CVD per 10,000 person-years for individuals with versus without a university degree. WHRadjBMI exhibited no effect differences by education. While the associational model showed evidence of educational attainment modifying the relationship between adiposity and incident CVD, it does not modify the association between adiposity and incident CVD in the MR models. This suggests either less education does not cause greater risk of incident CVD from high adiposity, or MR models cannot detect the effect difference. The associational point estimates exist within the MR models' confidence intervals in all BMI analyses, so we cannot rule out the effect sizes in the associational models.

Distribution of working hour characteristics by race, age, gender, and shift schedule among U.S. manufacturing workers.

Shift work is a common occupational exposure, however, few studies have examined aspects of shift work beyond night work and long hours, such as rotational patterns or weekend work, which may contribute to poor health through disruption of the body's circadian rhythms. In this manuscript, we calculated the prevalence of working hour characteristics using algorithms for type (e.g., day), duration, intensity, rotational direction, and social aspects (e.g., weekend work) in a nationwide cohort of American manufacturing workers (N = 23,044) between 2003 and 2014. Distributions of working hour characteristics were examined by schedules (e.g., permanent day, day/night) and demographics, and were cross-classified in a matrix to examine co-occurrence. Approximately 55% of shifts may cause circadian rhythm disruption as they were non-day shifts or day shifts with a quick return or rotation, or were 13 h or longer. Older workers, female workers, and White workers worked permanent day shifts most often, while workers of color worked more day/night schedules. Night and evening shifts had more frequent shift rotations, quick returns, and longer hours than day shifts. Yet, day shifts, which are presumed to have little negative circadian impact, may cause circadian rhythm disruption as long hours, quick returns and rotations also occurred within day shifts.

Accounting for Misclassification and Selection Bias in Estimating Effectiveness of Self-managed Medication Abortion.

BACKGROUND: Studies on the effectiveness of self-managed medication abortion may suffer from misclassification and selection bias due to self-reported outcomes and loss of follow-up. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis can estimate self-managed abortion effectiveness accounting for these potential biases. METHODS: We conducted a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis based on data from the Studying Accompaniment model Feasibility and Effectiveness Study (the SAFE Study), to generate bias-adjusted estimates of the effectiveness of self-managed abortion with accompaniment group support. Between July 2019 and April 2020, we enrolled a total of 1051 callers who contacted accompaniment groups in Argentina and Nigeria for self-managed abortion information; 961 took abortion medications and completed at least one follow-up. Using these data, we calculated measures of effectiveness adjusted for ineligibility, misclassification, and selection bias across 50,000 simulations with bias parameters drawn from pre-specified Beta distributions in R. RESULTS: After accounting for the potential influence of various sources of bias, bias-adjusted estimates of effectiveness were similar to observed estimates, conditional on chosen bias parameters: 92.68% (95% simulation interval: 87.80%, 95.74%) for mifepristone in combination with misoprostol (versus 93.7% in the observed data) and 98.47% (95% simulation interval: 96.79%, 99.39%) for misoprostol alone (versus 99.3% in the observed data). CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for multiple potential sources of bias, estimates of self-managed medication abortion effectiveness remain high. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis may be useful in studies measuring an epidemiologic proportion (i.e., effectiveness, prevalence, cumulative incidence) while accounting for possible selection or misclassification bias.

Residential proximity to agricultural pesticide use and risk-taking behaviors in young adults from the CHAMACOS study.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal pesticide exposure has been associated with poorer neurodevelopment during childhood, which could lead to greater risk-taking behaviors and delinquency in adolescence. This association may be augmented by adversity exposure. OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the relationship between prenatal pesticide exposure and risk-taking behavior in young adults at 18-years of age. Assess whether adversity exposure modifies these associations. METHODS: Participants included mother-child dyads (n = 467) enrolled in the Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children Of Salinas (CHAMACOS) study, a longitudinal birth cohort set in the agricultural Salinas Valley of California. We estimated agricultural pesticide use within one km of maternal residences during pregnancy using a geographic information system, residential addresses, and California's Pesticide Use Reporting data. We used Bayesian hierarchical regression to evaluate associations of prenatal exposure to a mixture of 11 neurotoxic pesticides with self-reported police encounters, risk-taking behaviors, and unique types and frequency of delinquent acts. We also evaluated effect modification of these relationships by adversity exposure. RESULTS: We observed generally null associations of neurotoxic pesticide use with risk-taking behaviors. Prenatal residential proximity to chlorpyrifos use was associated with higher risk of a police encounter, a delinquent act, and higher incidence of both unique types of acts committed and total frequency of delinquent acts. Prenatal residential proximity to dimethoate use was associated with a higher incidence of police encounters and methomyl with a higher risk of committing a delinquent act. There were no consistent differences when stratified by the number of adverse childhood experiences. CONCLUSIONS: We observed mostly null associations between prenatal residential proximity to agricultural pesticide use and risk-taking behaviors at age 18, with little evidence of effect modification by childhood adversity. There were suggestive associations for chlorpyrifos use with having any police encounter and with all measures of delinquent acts that warrant confirmation in other studies.

Development and validation of prediction models for gestational diabetes treatment modality using supervised machine learning: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes (GDM) is prevalent and benefits from timely and effective treatment, given the short window to impact glycemic control. Clinicians face major barriers to choosing effectively among treatment modalities [medical nutrition therapy (MNT) with or without pharmacologic treatment (antidiabetic oral agents and/or insulin)]. We investigated whether clinical data at varied stages of pregnancy can predict GDM treatment modality. METHODS: Among a population-based cohort of 30,474 pregnancies with GDM delivered at Kaiser Permanente Northern California in 2007-2017, we selected those in 2007-2016 as the discovery set and 2017 as the temporal/future validation set. Potential predictors were extracted from electronic health records at different timepoints (levels 1-4): (1) 1-year preconception to the last menstrual period, (2) the last menstrual period to GDM diagnosis, (3) at GDM diagnosis, and (4) 1 week after GDM diagnosis. We compared transparent and ensemble machine learning prediction methods, including least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and super learner, containing classification and regression tree, LASSO regression, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting algorithms, to predict risks for pharmacologic treatment beyond MNT. RESULTS: The super learner using levels 1-4 predictors had higher predictability [tenfold cross-validated C-statistic in discovery/validation set: 0.934 (95% CI: 0.931-0.936)/0.815 (0.800-0.829)], compared to levels 1, 1-2, and 1-3 (discovery/validation set C-statistic: 0.683-0.869/0.634-0.754). A simpler, more interpretable model, including timing of GDM diagnosis, diagnostic fasting glucose value, and the status and frequency of glycemic control at fasting during one-week post diagnosis, was developed using tenfold cross-validated logistic regression based on super learner-selected predictors. This model compared to the super learner had only a modest reduction in predictability [discovery/validation set C-statistic: 0.825 (0.820-0.830)/0.798 (95% CI: 0.783-0.813)]. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical data demonstrated reasonably high predictability for GDM treatment modality at the time of GDM diagnosis and high predictability at 1-week post GDM diagnosis. These population-based, clinically oriented models may support algorithm-based risk-stratification for treatment modality, inform timely treatment, and catalyze more effective management of GDM.

Conducting density-sampled case-control studies using survey data with complex sampling designs: A simulation study.

PURPOSE: Population-based surveys are possible sources from which to draw representative control data for case-control studies. However, these surveys involve complex sampling that could lead to biased estimates of measures of association if not properly accounted for in analyses. Approaches to incorporating complex-sampled controls in density-sampled case-control designs have not been examined. METHODS: We used a simulation study to evaluate the performance of different approaches to estimating incidence density ratios (IDR) from case-control studies with controls drawn from complex survey data using risk-set sampling. In simulated population data, we applied four survey sampling approaches, with varying survey sizes, and assessed the performance of four analysis methods for incorporating survey-based controls. RESULTS: Estimates of the IDR were unbiased for methods that conducted risk-set sampling with probability of selection proportional to survey weights. Estimates of the IDR were biased when sampling weights were not incorporated, or only included in regression modeling. The unbiased analysis methods performed comparably and produced estimates with variance comparable to biased methods. Variance increased and confidence interval coverage decreased as survey size decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Unbiased estimates are obtainable in risk-set sampled case-control studies using controls drawn from complex survey data when weights are properly incorporated.

Circulating Sex Hormones and Risk of Colorectal Adenomas and Serrated Lesions in Men.

BACKGROUND: Sex hormones have been implicated in the etiology of colorectal neoplasia in women for over 40 years, but there has been very little investigation of the role of these hormones in men. METHODS: Using data from an adenoma chemoprevention trial, we conducted a secondary analysis to examine serum hormone levels [testosterone, androstenedione, DHEA sulfate (DHEAS), and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG)] and risk of colorectal precursors in 925 men. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit to evaluate adjusted associations between hormone levels and risk of "low-risk" (single tubular adenoma < 1 cm) and "high-risk" lesions (advanced adenoma or sessile serrated adenoma or right-sided serrated polyp or >2 adenomas of any size). RESULTS: Overall, levels of free testosterone, total testosterone, androstenedione, DHEAS, or SHBG were not associated with either "low-risk" or "high-risk" early precursor lesions in the colorectum. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not support the role of sex hormones in early colorectal neoplasia among men. IMPACT: This large prospective study address a missing gap in knowledge by providing information on the role of sex hormones in colorectal neoplasia in males.

Durability of effects from short-term economic incentives for clinic attendance among HIV positive adults in Tanzania: long-term follow-up of a randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Conditional economic incentives are shown to promote medication adherence across a range of health conditions and settings; however, any long-term harms or benefits from these time-limited interventions remain largely unevaluated. We assessed 2-3 years outcomes from a 6-month incentive programme in Tanzania that originally improved short-term retention in HIV care and medication possession. METHODS: We traced former participants in a 2013-2016 trial, which randomised 800 food-insecure adults starting HIV treatment at three clinics to receive either usual care (control) or up to 6 months of cash or food transfers (~US$11/month) contingent on timely attendance at monthly clinic appointments. The primary intention-to-treat analysis estimated 24-month and 36-month marginal risk differences (RD) between incentive and control groups for retention in care and all-cause mortality, using multiple imputation for a minority of missing outcomes. We also estimated mortality HRs from time-stratified Cox regression. RESULTS: From 3 March 2018 to 19 September 2019, we determined 36-month retention and mortality statuses for 737 (92%) and 700 (88%) participants, respectively. Overall, approximately 660 (83%) participants were in care at 36 months while 43 (5%) had died. There were no differences between groups in retention at 24 months (86.5% intervention vs 84.4% control, RD 2.1, 95% CI -5.2 to 9.3) or 36 months (83.3% vs 77.8%, RD 5.6, -2.7 to 13.8), nor in mortality at either time point. The intervention group had a lower rate of death during the first 18 months (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.74); mortality was similar thereafter (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.33 to 3.79). CONCLUSION: These findings confirm that incentives are a safe and effective tool to promote short-term adherence and potentially avert early deaths at the critical time of HIV treatment initiation. Complementary strategies are recommended to sustain lifelong retention in HIV care. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01957917.